After three years of La Niña-driven weather, scientists at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center are reporting that cold water along the equatorial Pacific is showing signs of warming. This cold water has caused low precipitation in the southwest U.S. for the past three winters. Climate scientists are now predicting that there’s an 82% chance for an ENSO-neutral pattern to set up by spring. ENSO is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. ENSO’s impact on summer weather is less clear, but El Niño events can delay the onset of the monsoon in Arizona and New Mexico by weakening and repositioning the subtropical high that guides moisture into the Southwest.
Nearly 6.4 million domestic birds in Colorado and 2.2 million in Utah have died since April 2022, in an outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza according to Dr. Kristy Pabilonia, director of Clinical Diagnostics for Colorado State University Veterinary Health System. She believes the outbreak is the worst to ever hit the U.S. Colorado has lost almost its entire egg-laying population during the outbreak, which has driven up egg prices and reduced supplies. Extension poultry specialists are uncertain whether the outbreak will recede or intensify in 2023. Social media posts are suggesting that folks should start their own backyard chicken flocks to reduce the cost of eggs, but Pabilonia and other extension livestock specialists don’t recommend that solution. They point out that backyard flocks are more at risk of infection from wild birds than commercial flocks. Also, raising and caring for chickens isn’t cheap when accounting for the cost of the chicks, feed and shelter. They also require daily care, and are susceptible to domestic and wild predators. So, it’s unlikely that people can save money by maintaining a backyard flock when compared to buying eggs at grocery stores or farmers markets.
Last week, the USDA Economic Research Service released the 2023 Farm Sector Income Forecast, which may be of concern to some farmers and ranchers. The report is predicting that net cash farm income will decrease by $39.4, billion a drop of over 20% from 2022. USDA economists point out that this decline in income will will be caused by a $10.2 billion decrease in Direct Government payments, a $23.6 billion decline in farm cash receipts, and an $18.2 billion increase in farm production expenses. On a positive note, economists believe that net farm income and net cash farm income will remain above the 2020 levels and the 2002-2021 average, in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Here in the Four Corners Region, farmers and ranchers are keeping an eye on the snow pack hoping that it will help to mitigate dry conditions. Farmers in the middle of the country are watching snow and rain in the upper Mississippi and Ohio River drainages. The Ohio River provides 60% of the water flow in the Mississippi. Low water levels in the Mississippi drives up shipping costs and decreases the price of grain heading to ports along the Gulf of Mexico. Although water levels are a little better than they were in October, the next best hope for river levels to increase at St. Louis and below will come from a slow and steady spring melt in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio River watersheds.
Since it’s Valentine's day, this quote from Charles Schulz seems appropriate: “All you need is love. But a little chocolate now and then doesn’t hurt.”
