In mid August, I reported that agricultural economists were predicting that the U.S. ag economy was headed for a nasty downturn. But wait, last week the USDA announced that the department is no longer expecting a record drop in profits this year, because production expenses are declining and rising meat and egg prices are boosting the livestock sector. Economists also predict that lower fertilizer, feed, pesticide and transportation costs will help ag producers bottom line this fall. So this may be one of those “plan for the worst and hope for the best” years for many farmers and ranchers, since economists are predicting that livestock values will increase by over $267 billion in 2024, with eggs prices paid to farmers expected to increases 39% because of the continued impact of avian influenza on poultry flocks in the U.S. However, crop producers are facing some headwinds because it’s anticipated that grain crop yields will be higher in 2024 than in 2023, but exports may be lower, and that corn and soybean receipts will be 15 to 20% lower than in 2023.
This is state fair season in many states, and H5N1 bird flu is affecting dairy exhibits and contests at several Midwest fairs, because of outbreaks of the disease in dairy herds in the region. Michigan banned lactating cows from all public exhibitions, but they still had Milkshake and Buttercup on display. These are two life-size fiberglass cows complete with rubber teats and water-filled udders, that are also used for popular milking demonstrations. The Minnesota State Fair’s Moo Booth came up with a similar work around for its hands-on milking event with their imitation cow Olympia, another figment of a mad scientist’s imagination. However, the Iowa State Fair just shut down its milking barn, probably because man-made dairy cows are in short supply this year.
Shades of California's prop 12, strikes again, that’s the ballot initiative passed by California voters a couple of years ago that specifies how pigs and other livestock should be housed. Now, A group of farms and food companies led by Triumph Foods LLC has asked a federal appeals court to review a Massachusetts federal court's ruling that upheld the state's animal welfare law, Question 3, that was created through a ballot initiative which is similar to California’s Proposition 12. Also, a federal court ruled in July that the Federal Meat Inspection Act does not preempt the Massachusetts Prevention of Farm Animal Cruelty Act. Also on the food front, Florida and Alabama have enacted state bans on alternative meat this year, and Iowa has barred school districts and publicly funded colleges from buying alternative meat. In their next legislative session, Nebraska legislators are on the verge of passing a law banning the sale of “lab-grown meat” in the state, while Florida and Alabama have also recently enacted state bans on alternative meat.
Bakers and those who like to snack on English walnuts may be interested to know that the USDA is forecasting that California’s walnut crop is expected to be smaller than last year’s crop because there are fewer acres being harvested, and yields have been reduced due to weather events in the state. The USDA is projecting that the crop will be 670,000 tons, which is a significant drop from the 824,000 tons produced in 2023.
Abraham Lincoln wrote, “The most reliable way to predict the future is to create it.”
