President elect Trump ran on a platform that included tough talk about slapping tariffs on imported goods from many countries, which is of concern to some agricultural economists, because farmers went through some tough times during the first Trump Administration’s trade war with China. However, trade is more diversified today., and a recent report by successful Magazine pointed out that trading partners have changed over the past seven or eight years. China is no longer the number one farm export market. According to Census Bureau data tracked by the USDA, U.S. food and agricultural product sales to Mexico increased by 7% during the 2024 fiscal year, which makes Mexico our number one agricultural export customer, followed by Canada, while China fell to third place. The USDA pointed out that shipments to Mexico totaled $30 billion, that’s an increase of $2 billion from 2023, with purchases of a record 24.5 million metric tons of corn. Those shipments amounted to 40% of all U.S. corn exports for the year. To the north, “Canada bought $29 billion, while China bought $25.7 billion of American-grown food and agricultural goods.
Link to Farm Journal article, Do Tariffs Work? The Answer Isn’t As Straightforward As You May Think https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/ag-economy/do-tariffs-work-answer-isnt-straightforward-you-may-think
Both the U.S. Senate and House Agricultural Committees have some unfinished business that may not be completed before the end of this legislative year. Both Senate Ag Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, and House Ag Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson apparently still want to to pass a farm bill in 2024. Thompson thinks that he may now be carrying a bigger stick, because if they don’t finish crafting a farm bill now, it’s uncertain whether the process will have to start again with a new House and a Republican Senate. Apparently, Thompson wants to pass a farm bill with the committee members that have worked on the legislation over the past two years. Stabenow's bill includes $20 billion to strengthen the farm safety net to support all of agriculture and establish a permanent structure for disaster assistance, so emergency relief reaches farmers faster. A summary stated that the Senate bill increases reference prices while making crop insurance more affordable and provides more support for beginning, under-served and small farmers and ranchers.
Another unknown for some farmers is what will happen to about half of the 2.4 million farm workers that, according to USDA, don’t have legal status in the U.S. During his campaign, Trump promised to “launch the largest deportation program in American history.” However, in places like California, farm worker advocates contend that the number of undocumented workers may be as high as 70%. So if Trump follows through with his promise, Ana Padilla, executive director of the Community and Labor Center at the University of California at Merced points out that “Without undocumented immigrant labor, we wouldn’t be able to sustain a food supply at the capacity that we have right now."
With Thanksgiving just 10 days away, I’ll mention that according to the National Bank for Cooperatives, turkey may be losing its monopoly on Thanksgiving dinner since demand for this poultry item is in a long-term decline. Reports indicate that consumers are considering other options for their holiday meal, like pork or beef. But hey, historical records indicate that no turkey was served at the first Thanksgiving meal. More on this next week..
Napoleon Bonaparte wrote,” If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing.”
