This is Bob Bragg with the Farm News and Views Report for the last week of 2024.
The announcement on Sunday this week that former President Jimmy Carter had passed away, brought to mind that he was one of few U.S. Presidents who would be considered a farmer before ascending to the highest office in the country. He had grown up on a peanut farm near Plains Georgia, and in high school, Carter served as secretary of the Plains High School FFA Chapter. He is the only FFA member to be elected U.S. president. After resigning from the U.S. Navy in the early 1950s, Carter returned home to take over the family seed and farm supply store, growing peanut seed for sale in the store and cotton, corn and other crops as well as raising cattle, chickens and hogs. During that time, he also began to dabble in politics, being elected to the Georgia Senate in 1962, and to the Governorship of Georgia in 1970. When he and his wife returned to Plains after leaving the White House, they transitioned their land into a certified tree farm, which allowed the land to be economically productive while still supporting wildlife. In a speech at the National FFA Organization’s State Presidents’ Conference in 1979, Carter spoke about his role as FFA secretary, stating that “I can vouch for the fact that it’s good preparation for the highest elective office in our nation.”
As we move into 2025, farmers a may be facing some tough sledding, according to a report from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, 81% of agricultural economists believe that U.S. agriculture is either in a recession or on the brink of one, which is a significant jump from the 56% of economists who responded that way in the October survey. Michael Langemeier, Associate Director, for the Center for Commercial Agriculture, and Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, believes that this year was about the worst year for crop farmers since 2007. However, the outlook for cattle producers may be a little better. The USDA reports that with the recent discovery of New World Screwworm in cattle in Mexico and the subsequent U.S. import ban on cattle that come from or transition through Mexico is expected to limit slaughter cattle numbers in the second-quarter of 2025, which will reduce 2025 beef production by 615 million pounds from projections made in November. Therefore, the 2025 outlook for feeder and slaughter cattle prices was raised due to expectation of lower feeder cattle placements and therefore fewer slaughter cattle available later in year. 2025 slaughter steer prices are forecast to increase over 2 percent year over year, while feeder steers are forecast to increase 8 percent. Hog producers are also looking for a profitable 2025 due to strong export markets and reduced feed costs because of lower corn and soybean prices.
Agricultural economists point out some unknowns that farmers and ranchers should watch for in 2025. They include, the outcome of congress providing economic assistance to the farm sector during the lame duck session or in early 2025, and whether President elect Trump will impose tariffs when he is sworn in, and if so, how countries that are targeted will react. Farmers and ranchers are also watching to see if a new farm bill is written or whether congressional inaction will lead to a year-long extension of the current bill. And the list could go on.
Albert Einstein wrote, "Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow."