MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Russia and Ukraine held a third round of peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, last night. The meeting came after threats by President Trump to impose sanctions on Russia if the Kremlin doesn't sign on to a deal by the end of the summer. Joining us to talk about it is NPR's Charles Maynes, who joins us on the line from Moscow. Good morning, Charles.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Morning, Michel.
MARTIN: So let's get right into these talks. What do we know?
MAYNES: Well, you know, expectations were low going in. The Kremlin said there would be no breakthrough. The positions between Moscow and Kyiv were miles apart. So I guess in that sense, you could say the meeting didn't disappoint. Delegations from the two sides met for under an hour, during which Russia again rejected Ukrainian calls for an immediate ceasefire. Russia also dismissed a proposal for direct peace negotiations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, one that Ukraine's delegation said could include President Trump and the leader of Turkey. Now, whether Trump knew about that isn't clear. Either way, the head of Russia's delegation, Kremlin adviser Vladimir Medinsky, argued such a meeting could only take place once negotiators had done their homework. Let's listen.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
VLADIMIR MEDINSKY: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: So here, Medinsky says for any meeting at the top to take place, the two sides should first have an agreement, arguing a meeting between leaders is supposed to be the end, not the beginning of the process.
MARTIN: OK. So no meeting between presidents, at least not yet. And no deals, at least not yet.
MAYNES: Yeah and no. You know, the two sides agreed to additional exchanges of prisoners of war. In fact, some soldiers were already released last night. For the first time, civilian prisoners will also be included. So too, in fact, will some of what Kyiv says are thousands of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia amid the conflict, although Moscow continues to dispute that characterization, as well as the numbers involved. More war dead will also be returned home. So all in all, these are positive steps that build on humanitarian deals struck during two previous rounds of negotiations. But they are certainly less than the Trump administration has been demanding, you know, given, as you noted, Trump has now threatened Russia with punitive new economic penalties if it doesn't sign on to a peace deal soon - in fact, by September.
MARTIN: You know, people may remember that Trump has spent months now trying to get Russia to sign on to a ceasefire, largely by offering them concessions. That did not work. Are these threats doing any better in pushing Russia towards a peace agreement?
MAYNES: Well, you know, Trump's deadline to get a deal by the end of summer, as well as a decision last week to sell arms to Ukraine - albeit now through NATO allies - really hovered over these talks. You know, officially, the Kremlin has reacted quite cautiously to Trump's threats, calling them serious but saying they needed time to analyze the situation. But I spoke with Fyodor Lukyanov. He's the editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine and an occasional adviser to the Kremlin. And he told me that the prevailing view in Moscow among the Russian elite is that Trump'll spend less political and financial capital on Ukraine than his predecessor. So most here feel that there's only so far Trump's willing to go, says Lukyanov.
FYODOR LUKYANOV: The conclusion is that the level of military and material support from the U.S. to Ukraine will not reach the level as it was during Biden administration. And if so, then it cannot seriously change the equation on the battlefield.
MARTIN: So, Charles, before we let you go, what's your sense of where things go from here?
MAYNES: Well, it certainly appears as though the fighting will continue, given that Russia believes it has the advantage on the battlefield and therefore no reason to stop or negotiate. And yet these Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will also continue, particularly given this Trump-imposed deadline, because neither side wants to be seen as sabotaging the U.S. peace efforts entirely and because - really, because both recognize that Trump is prone to changing his mind on issues. We've seen it time and time again. And his frustrations with Russia today - well, they may be aimed back at Ukraine tomorrow.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow. Charles, thank you.
MAYNES: Thanks, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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