A new study published in Global Change Biology warns that severe wildfires in western U.S. forests are accelerating and could get far worse in the coming decades.
Researchers looked at fire records from 1985 to 2022 and found that while the total area burned increased tenfold, the area burned at high severity—where most or all trees die—jumped fifteenfold.
The study links this rise to hotter, drier fire seasons and predicts that by the mid-21st century, area burned could nearly triple, with severe fire quadrupling compared to past averages.
That means years like 2020 and 2021, when massive, destructive fires burned millions of acres, could become the new normal.
Scientists caution that without expanded management strategies—such as forest thinning and prescribed burns—these increasingly severe wildfires could lead to widespread forest loss, reduced carbon storage, diminished biodiversity, and major risks to human communities.
