There’s some good news recently concerning the U.S. ag economy. Farm bankruptcies were at a record low in 2023, due in part to record-high commodity prices and high net farm incomes. Also, overall farm loan delinquency rates dropping,, with only 139 farm bankruptcies filed in 2023. That’s down 18% from 2022. In the southwest region, there were no farm bankruptcies filed in Utah and New Mexico and one each were filed in Colorado and Arizona. Unfortunately, according to farm economists, in 2024, farmers are facing decreased revenues and higher costs, so it is likely that we’ll see increased filings in 2024 and beyond.
Writing a new farm bill seems to be bogged down in the Washington DC political swamp. At the start of the July 23rd House Agriculture Committee hearing, Pennsylvania Republican Chairman Glenn Thompson, said that he hoped that all those watching the hearing would “understand the urgency” of passing a new farm bill, while adding that “for the first time in a long time, this committee has the chance to be proactive instead of reactive”....But maybe not right away. On the July 23rd, Dana Allen-Tully, president of the Minnesota Corn Growers, stated that “unless conditions change, I think we are facing a perfect storm in agriculture. I don’t think it will be fully understood until early next year, when farmers are unable to secure loans because they can’t cash flow.” North Carolina Cotton producer David Dunlow, told the committee that without a new farm bill or comparable relief before the end of the year, he and others “may no longer be farming.” He was joined by Ronald Rainey, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas and a representative of the American Bankers Association. But the go-get’um attitude didn’t last long, since on the 25th, House Speaker Mike Johnson sent the house out on recess until September 9th. As an example of their lethargy, so far, House members have only completed action on five of the 12 annual appropriations bills needed to fund the government in the 2025 fiscal year.
Based on the 2019-20 results of the U.S. Department of Labor’s National Agricultural Workers Survey , an estimated 2.4 million farmworkers labor on U.S. farms and ranches, cultivating and harvesting crops and raising and tending to livestock. About 950,000, or 45% of these employees are undocumented migrant workers. Presidential candidate Donald Trump contends that if he is elected, he will immediately deport all of these undocumented individuals. But the devil is in the details, because such a move could have devastating consequences on U.S. farms economy, According to the National Milk Producers Federation, “Immigrant labor accounts for 51% of all dairy labor, and dairies that employ immigrant labor produce 79% of the U.S. milk supply.” According to the Center for Farmworker Families, California has one third to one half of all farm workers, many of whom are undocumented, but the organization contends that deporting these undocumented workers would quickly shut down the largest food producing state in the U.S. According to Yale University professor Natasha Sarin, research found that GDP would actually fall and inflation would rise under Trump’s plan, since deporting 1 million immigrants would result in 88,000 lost jobs for non immigrant workers in the U.S.”
