As corn and soybean harvest starts in some parts of the U.S., producers are facing grain markets that are barely providing break-even prices. According to Purdue University, the 2025 U.S. cost of production for soybeans is projected to be about $11.03 per bushel, which is near to the price being offered for soybeans in the current market. The projections for corn are also indicating that farmers may see losses of $.15 to $.25 per bushel. With these numbers in mind, farm organizations are pressing the Trump administration to consider making aid payments similar to those that were made in 2017 and 2018 following the trade squabbles during Trump’s first term in office. But some farm organization leaders point out that without a major overhaul of ag policies, potential ad-hoc government payments are nothing more than a Band-Aid for a gushing wound" that won't heal the underlying problems, as long as tariffs continue to dampen demand for U.S. grain by China, the European Union and many other countries. So, the American Soybean Association is pressing the Trump administration to reach a trade deal with China, and National Corn Growers are encouraging Congress to approve year-round E15 gasoline before the end of the year, because they believe that E15 legislation would encourage ethanol producers to increase their production, and thereby consuming more of this year's corn crop.
Although President Trump seems to believe that the U.S. can slap tariffs on other countries without concerns about retaliation, Brazil is moving on by creating stronger partnerships with the BRICS nations that include Russia, India, China and South Africa. China has become Brazil’s leading agricultural trading partner, importing 73% of Brazil’s soybeans. 46% of its beef, as well as cotton, sugar, pork, and poultry. In the past few years, China looked to the U.S. to fulfill most of China’s domestic demand for these commodities.
With commodity prices continuing to leave farmers with income deficits, there are concerns that the remaining staff in gutted local Farm Service Agency offices will be unable to handle the demand for any new disaster aid programs that Congress might provide for farmers who are losing money this year. The National Association of Farmer Elected Committees points out that FSA has seen a wave of employees take early retirements and buyouts, and that "the staffing levels in counties have never been lower, so they believe that "Without staffing increases, critical services will be impacted, and many farmers won’t be able to access government programs that might help them to weather current financial storms.
As if farmers in the Midwest need more things to worry about, getting grain to markets is getting dicey again. While the year-over-year Mississippi River levels at St. Louis and Memphis are currently measuring above what they were for the past three years, there hasn’t been an abundance of rain again this summer in the Midwest. So with no significant rain in the forecast for the Ohio River Valley, Missouri River Watershed and Upper Mississippi River, it may be tough to ship full barge loads of grain to Gulf of Mexico ports again this year, because of the potential for low water levels in the lower Mississippi River. At this point, River levels at St. Louis are approximately 8 higher now than the same date last year, and in Memphis, the reading is approximately 4.5 higher, but the trend line for water levels continues to decrease.
Although Midwest and southeast crop producers are struggling, most cattle producers in Colorado are in much better financial shape, since cattle production is Colorado's leading agricultural sector, contributing over $3 billion to the state's agricultural sales, with purebred cattle herds supplying commercial cow-calf operations with breeding stock, that in turn provides feeder cattle to feedlots, while offering job opportunities for workers in all phases of cattle production. In turn, feedlot operations offer markets for crop producers who supply them with hay and grain.
Wendell Berry wrote, “We have neglected the truth that a good farmer is a craftsman of the highest order, a kind of artist.”
