Due to President Trump’s trade wars, there is a lot of uncertainty about exactly where the agricultural economy is headed over the next few months. The Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, polls 70 leading U.S. agricultural economists to gather their insights about the farm economy monthly. The September Monthly Monitor, published last week, found that more than half of the contributing economists believe that the U.S. ag economy is worse off now than it was a month ago, and that it will remain depressed or even worsen over the next 12 months. 91% of them contend that the farm economy is already in a recession, which is the highest level since the survey began in 2023. Economists believe the recession is being fueled by record high costs for equipment replacement and repairs, crop inputs, insurance, and labor, while farmer’s returns on the crops and livestock have declined. But a few economists contend that as long as farmland values are strong, agriculture’s store of wealth will technically keep the sector out of a recession.
Recently, Trump stated that “We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers who are, for a little while, going to be hurt. So we’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape, because we’re taking in a lot of money.” But it’s unclear exactly how Trump can fulfill that promise, since tariff receipts are deposited in the U.S. Treasury general fund, and the Treasury doesn’t have authority to direct those receipts toward agriculture, except for an account known as Section 32, which is funded by a percentage of the tariff revenues from the prior calendar year. But since there were no tariff revenues collected in 2025, that money wouldn’t be available until 2027.
Tariff money for agricultural inputs is not being paid by foreign businesses or governments, but by U.S. ag producers when they buy imported crop supplies, equipment and repairs they use in their operations. Agricultural producers and members of Congress have called for emergency aid for farmers this fall because commodity prices are low, input costs are high and China isn’t buying U.S. agricultural products, particularly soybeans and cotton. When the U.S. imposed tariffs on China, in 2018, China shifted part of their soybean purchases to Brazil and Argentina, and they didn’t fully return to the U.S. for all of their soybeans after the trade spat was de-escalated in 2020. China has not purchased any soybeans, beef or pork from the U.S since Trump imposed tariffs earlier this year. The 2018 trade war with China never formally ended, although a "Phase One" trade deal was signed in January 2020, it moderated the conflict, but didn’t resolve the underlying disputes, and tariffs have largely remained in place, while they have been escalating during 2025. Cattle producers are also being affected. Erin Borror, vice president of economic analysis for the U.S. Meat Export Federation, said that tight live cattle supplies in the U.S. and a closed border with Mexico due to new world screwworm have played a role in the slim cattle supply. Borror also notes that tariffs imposed on China have been met with significant retaliation, particularly affecting beef exports, and the U.S. beef industry has lost access to China, one of its largest export markets, costing U.S. beef producers around $4 billion annually.
Author Eric Hoffer wrote, Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
