This is Bob Bragg with the Farm News and Views Report for the week of April 7th.
In early March, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, , “To the Great farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!” But most ag producers couldn’t change the composition of either their livestock or crop enterprises for 2025. Most the farmers ranchers had already committed to the crop enterprises that fit their land, climate, equipment and facilities, and had purchased crop inputs. Livestock producers are even less flexible, because of the lag time between when animal is bred, the offspring is born, and the time it takes for them to be ready for market.
Farmers and ranchers in the Four Corners Region are likely to face more questions than answers concerning their ag operations in the coming months, since global trade isn’t easily turned around. The American Farm Bureau Federation points out that about exports provide about 20% of U.S. Farm income, while producers depend on imports of crop inputs, equipment and repairs. Tariffs are expected to drive up the cost of these supplies, while retaliatory tariffs are expected to make U.S. produced products more expensive globally, putting U.S. producers at a disadvantage.
At this point in time, I think that it’s safe to say that the U.S. is in a trade war with the rest of the world, but it’s too early to determine who will be winners and who may be losers. But with 20% of U.S. agricultural production going to foreign markets, farmers and ranchers are feeling like that they’re on the front lines of another trade war, after enduring one in 2018. But when President Trump started his first trade war, ag producers were better off financially than they are today. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall points out that although foreign trade is critical to the success of farmers and ranchers across the country, many producers have lost money on major crops for the past three years, so they’re more vulnerable to a disruption in markets that are expected to cause declines in crop and livestock prices. Producers are also likely to be harmed by increases in the cost of inputs including fertilizer, crop chemicals, agricultural equipment and repairs and replacement.
Last Wednesday, Trump railed against foreign barriers to trade that had shut U.S. ag exports out of valuable markets, including poultry going to Europe, rice to China, South Korea and Japan, and beef going to Australia. But these commodities are facing head winds because producers in those countries have developed loyal markets. The European Union is one of the world’s largest poultry meat producers and is a net exporter of poultry products with annual production of over 13 million tons. India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the U.S. were the top five rice exporting nations, while Australia produces almost an identical amount of beef as the U.S. But their beef is mainly grass fed, and is in demand in the U.S. because it is low fat and is mixed with U.S. beef to provide an ideal 30% fat content for fast food hamburger restaurants. So the point is, why would we expect that these countries would import the very same products from the U.S. that they export?
Duvall points out that “More than 20% of farm income comes from exports, and farmers rely on imports for crucial supplies like fertilizer and specialized tools. Tariffs will drive up the cost of critical supplies, and retaliatory tariffs will make American-grown products more expensive globally. The combination not only threatens farmers’ competitiveness in the short-term, but it may cause long-term damage by leading to losses in market share.”
“We encourage the administration to work toward a swift resolution to trade disagreements to avoid tariffs that put farmers and ranchers in the crosshairs of retaliation, and to pursue strategies that expand market opportunities for the men and women who grow the food every family in America relies on.”
National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew also weighed in, stating that “One thing is certain: American family farmers and ranchers will bear the brunt of this global trade war. The economic strain and uncertainty that farmers face have reached a breaking point. Without meaningful support and a commitment to fair trade policies, we will lose even more family farms, weaken rural economies, and ultimately drive up costs and limit choices for consumers at the grocery store.”
“Farmers Union has always fought for fair trading relationships with other countries. We rely on stable markets and fair competition to thrive, but the administration’s actions today create instability at the expense of our family farmers.”
“Policymakers must recognize that the consequences of these decisions extend far beyond the farm—our entire food system and the communities it sustains are at stake.”
Benjamin Franklin wrote, “Here comes the orator! With his flood of words, and his drop of reason.”
