Last week, I thought that I was seeing a repeat of old news, when I read that the Trump Administration was imposing 25% tariffs on most imports from Brazil. There’s concern in ag circles that this move will revive another trade war that could ensnare many other countries around the world, as the Administration reworks its tariffs policies. The new tariffs, announced late on Wednesday, could impact trade with countries like India, China, Japan, South Korea and the European Union. Apparently, Trump wants to see if he can find a work around for the tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down in February of this year. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the U.S. decision was without any justification.
While tariffs are muddying the waters, the American Farm Bureau Federation is projecting that U.S. major row crop farmers will face over $31 billion in economic losses in 2026, leading to consecutive years of negative returns. The Federation is also projecting that corn losses will increase from $131 per acre in 2026 to $167 per acre in 2027. Soybean losses are projected to increase from $80 per acre to $138 per acre, wheat losses from $114 per acre to $145 per acre and cotton losses from $342 per acre to $406 per acre. They are also projecting that rice, sorghum, oats, barley and peanuts will remain below break even returns.
But conventional crop farmers aren’t the only ones that are facing tough sledding ahead. The Farm Bureau reports that Specialty crop growers suffered over $7 billion in losses in 2025 on six representative specialty crops that include almonds, apples, blueberries, lettuce, potatoes and strawberries. While these crops account for only about one-quarter of specialty crop receipts available 2026, market data indicates that conditions for specialty crop producers haven’t improved so far this year, and that these crops account for only about one-quarter of total specialty crop receipts.
In a letter to Congress, Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall pointed out that every farm that is lost takes with it generations of knowledge, community leadership, and the heartbeat of local economies. He also contends that as farms disappear, America’s food security is put at greater risk. He also called for a new, modernized farm bill, the protection of interstate commerce, risk management coverage for specialty crop farmers and policies directed at year-round E15 auto fuel that can help to improve corn demand and reduce the risk of more farm closures.
The USDA's Conservation Reserve Program, usually referred to as CRP, was established in 1985 to help prevent erosion of cropland, and according to the USDA, by 1990, 33 million acres had been enrolled. It peaked at more than 36 million acres in 2007, but it it has declined since 2021. Goals for the program include reducing soil erosion, improving water quality and wildlife habitats. The only time the ground in CRP can be used is for emergency haying and grazing due to drought. Now there are state cattle organizations that are calling for making CRP land available for grazing to provide grazing that will allow producers to expand the U.S. beef cattle herd and help to bring beef prices down for consumers, while also providing producers with much needed feed for the their cattle herds.
Current events brings this Will Rogers quote to mind, “A politician is just like a pickpocket; it's almost impossible to get one to reform.”
