Last week, Secretary of Agriculture Brook Rollins agreed with President Trump's statement about having an “all-American” workforce, which includes farmworkers. She cited automation and putting some of the 34 million “able-bodied adults” currently enrolled in Medicaid to work in the fields as a solutions to the agricultural labor problem. I doubt that Rollins knows how arduous is the work of planting, cultivating and harvesting crops in the hot sun. But there are problems associated with deporting farmworkers. A September 4th study conducted by the Peterson Institute, points out that mass deportation could affect agricultural labor, and lead to a 10% increase in food prices. In 2024, former President Trump actively opposed a bipartisan border security bill negotiated in the Senate, which included provisions for increased border enforcement and reforms to the asylum system. The bill was negotiated by a bipartisan group of senators, including a Republican Senator James Lankford, and even initially had the support of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, but Trump denounced the legislation and badgered Republicans senators to reject the bill. So here we are today, with ICE officers chasing immigrant workers through farm fields while crops rot in the hot sun.
According to the National Corn Growers Association, Forty-two agricultural groups have signed a letter to President Trump asking him to “expeditiously” nominate an individual to be chief agricultural negotiator at the USDA. They contend that this role is critical during the ongoing trade negotiations, because the chief agricultural negotiator conducts and oversees talks related to trade that concerns agricultural producers and products.
President Trump is in the process of hiking tariffs on Mexico, one of our most important trading partners that sent more than $500 billion worth of goods to American consumers and companies in 2024. According to USDA data, food imports from Mexico made up 69% of U.S. vegetables and 51% of U.S. fresh fruit in recent years., and since these products have short shelf lives, consumers could see more price hikes than with other goods. Mexico is the most important market for U.S. food and agricultural exports, ahead of both Canada, and China. It’s reported that in 2018, Mexican negotiators strategically placed tariffs on products from states and regions with strong ties to the first Trump administration, including apples, bourbon, cheese, cranberries, pork, and potatoes. While the Trump trade team seems to believe that Mexico is very dependent on agricultural trade with the U.S., some experts contend that Mexico could slowly shift to other markets, since the country is seeking to expand trade with countries in Asia, and Latin America, while maintaining ties with the European Union, the second-largest market for Mexican exports after the United States.
The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index surveys bank presidents in ten Midwestern states and Colorado about the economy in rural communities with an average population of 1,300 people. Although bankers noted that the overall Rural Mainstreet Index rose to its highest level since July 2023, the outlook for farmers is not good, with bank CEO s expecting that one in four farmers in their area will experience negative incomes in 2025. While they reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months, they noted that for the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral, farm equipment sales were sluggish for the 22nd straight month, and regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, an 18.5% decline.
Additional information about the farm labor force and exports is at the Farm News & Views Blog Post at KSJD.org.
Thomas Jefferson wrote, “Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals, and happiness.”
