Last week, I mentioned that farm organizations were calling for President Trump to nominate someone to be the Chief Agricultural Negotiator for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. This week, Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Agricultural Affairs and Commodity Policy, Dr. Julie Callahan, was nominated for the position, which has drawn praise from a number of U.S. farm groups representing both crop and livestock producers. The chief agricultural negotiator is responsible for leading and coordinating agricultural trade negotiations and developing agricultural trade policy.
Unlike the stock markets, many agricultural markets have been surprisingly stable for many commodities. For example, the November soybean futures opened in January at $10.28 per bushel, and closed at $10.27 at the end of June. Cotton opened and closed at the nearly same price. But in the livestock sector, cattle futures increased $19 per hundredweight, while hog futures added $11 per cwt. But consumers should note that ag economists are reporting that beef prices will likely reach new highs in 2025, as a result of smaller beef cattle herds and the possibility of a trade war with Brazil, where the U.S gets about 23% of its beef imports. According to analysts, the new tariffs could make beef more expensive for U.S. consumers.
According to government data released last week, the average price of a pound of 100% ground beef rose to $6.12 last month. That’s up from $5.98 in May of this year and $5.47 in June of 2024. The price of beef steaks has increased with average prices for all beef steaks hitting $11.49 in June of this year, and upward pressure on prices are expected through 2026 and beyond.
Currently, many agricultural commodity prices seem to be in a holding pattern, but the farm economy may be showing signs of stress. University of Arkansas Agriculture Extension Economist Ryan Lot, reported that more farms nationwide have filed for bankruptcy in the first three months of this year than during all of 2024. There were 259 Chapter 12 filing in the first three month of 2025. Federal Reserve Bank economists are warning that they are seeing economic stress in the farm economy during the first quarter of this year, and that demand for non-real estate farm loans is growing at the fastest pace since 2016, due to stagnant commodity prices and expensive input costs that has limited many farmers ability to self-finance their operations.
Last week, Agri-Pulse News Service reported that if trade negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union fall through, and President Trump goes ahead with his promised August 1st tariffs, U.S agricultural producers could face some pretty tough head winds, since the EU is prepared to impose their own tariffs on $84 billion worth of US goods, and ag producers could be in the EU cross-hairs if Trump follows through with his threats. The US could face retaliatory tariffs on $25 billion worth of agricultural products, including on grains, meats, and vegetables, and there is also a second list under consideration that would impose tariffs on an additional $84 billion worth of U.S. product that include $7.4 billion of agri-food exports as well as U.S. industrial products, such as Boeing airplanes, cars, medical devices, and chemicals.
Trump’s budget proposal is also a potential stumbling block for the ag economy. According to a Politico analysis, if the proposal is approved by Congress, the USDA could see a $7 billion budget reduction for fiscal year 2026, with significant cuts to the Farm Service Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service and Rural Development.
Benjamin Franklin wrote, “No nation was ever ruined by trade.”
