Over the past year, Donald Trump has repeatedly touted tariffs as a tool that will help farmers in the long run. While he has acknowledge that farmers may have some short-term pain, he argues that tariffs will ultimately open more markets for farmers and help him finalize favorable trade deals. American Bureau President Zippy Duvall has stated that he is skeptical of Trump’s tariff policy. In remarks at the Annual Farm Bureau Convention, he recalled a 2025 meeting with the president in which Duvall stated that farmers favored trade, not tariffs. Trump’s response was that he needed tariffs to bring other nations to the negotiating table. Duvall’s replied Trump that “We pray to God that you’re right.” Now, Trump and his administration contend that tariff revenues are delivering huge benefits to farmers, but according to a recent North Dakota State University Trade Monitor report, in 2025, while tariffs related to agriculture collected $958 million, farmers ended up footing the bill. For example, farmers paid more than $530 million in tariffs for imported farm machinery. $273 million in tariffs were added to the cost of agricultural chemicals, while tariffs on fertilizers amounted to $110 million, and tariffs raised the price of seeds by $44 million. Over all, the report found that U.S. farmers and input suppliers bore substantially higher costs than the tariff revenue collected. Farmers point out that tariffs and trade uncertainty are making planning harder for them, because they are increasing operating costs while forcing them to sell what they produce for lower prices.
Although the agricultural economy is facing some tough times. According to agricultural lender, Farm Credit Services of America, in 2025 farmers were the largest buyers of Iowa farm ground by a wide margin. Their data shows that 79% of Iowa farmland buyers were farmers or ranchers, although that percentage is down from 84% in 2024. The remaining 21% of the buyers in 2025 were either local or out of the area investors and other unclassified buyers that purchased land through a variety of agreements.
U.S. agriculture is often referred to as a "productivity powerhouse" or a "global leader" in agricultural efficiency, when agricultural organization talk about the role of the U.S. in producing food and fiber for the world. But as we have seen with the trade war, the U.S. may not have as much control of commodity markets as they we have had in the past. In 2024, the U.S. used approximately 328 million acres for cropland for crop production, and 23 million acres of land were enrolled in enrolled in the the Conservation Reserve Program. But, there are estimates that the U.S. faces a loss of over 24 million acres of land to non-agricultural development by 2040. Although Brazil has approximately160 million acres of land currently used for crop production, Joana Colussi, assistant professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, points out that Brazilian farmers have the potential to convert 70 million acres of degraded pasture land into cropland that will be suited for growing soybeans and corn. That would increase Brazilian cropland by 30%. But wait, there’s more. Approximately 40 million acres of soybeans in Brazil are followed by a second crop, known as safrinha, planted primarily to corn each year. Total U.S. double-cropped acres are mostly winter wheat followed by soybeans, that accounts for about 4 million acres, while less than 5% of total soybean acres are being double-cropped. Double cropping soybeans with corn is almost nonexistent because of short growing seasons in most of the U.S., when compared with Brazil.
So we can hope that our president doesn't over promise and underdeliver on agricultural trade.
Author Aldous Huxley wrote, “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored."
