This is Bob Bragg with the first Farm News & Views Report for 2026
As we move into 2026, agricultural producers are likely to face some hurdles. For example, more than 20,300 employees left the U.S. Department of Agriculture in the first five months of 2025. thats about a fifth of the staff, according to a report from the agency’s inspector general. About 75% of them left through a financial incentive program offered as part of the Trump administration’s effort to shrink the size of the federal workforce. The rest left through resignation, retirement, termination or other pathways.
Investigatewest, a nonprofit news organization established in 2009, contends that U.S. farmers are facing one of the widest gaps in a decade between what they pay to produce crops and what they will earn when they sell them. They cite USDA data released in mid December, that shows the 2025 prices paid index, which measures input costs, that had increased to 154.6, while the prices received index had fallen to 120.5. Investigatewest contends that this is the widest spread in the data going back at least a decade. Also, TrrainAg, an arm of Farm Credit Services, is projecting slightly higher operating costs for the 2026 corn and soybean crops, due to the current outlook for increased fertilizer, seed, equipment operation, labor and other input costs.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodities economist, and Josh Linville, StoneX vice president of fertilizer, both contend that 2026 will be shaped by structural shifts that go far beyond one growing season. Global competitiveness, domestic demand growth, geopolitical risk and policy decisions are converging at the same time, and it’s how those forces resolve, or fail to do so, could determine whether 2026 brings opportunity, volatility or another year of pressure.
Some agricultural observers see problems on the horizon with many commodities based on demand, since there aren’t unlimited markets that can or will pay for the crops U.S. farmers produce. For example, corn prices are supported by strong demand from Mexico. Soybean prices have been buoyed for several years because of purchases by China. But as we saw in fall of of 2025, the Chinese are in the process of shifting their purchases to Brazil, where the Chinese government is building new grain handling infrastructure that will allow Brazil to load Chinese cargo ships with Brazilian soybeans and other grains efficiently. Wheat and Sorghum demand is steady, but these crops face increased global competition. Beef, poultry and pork are bright spots, and are benefiting from steady demand and lower feed costs.
As agricultural exporters ship products from the U.S., they have a number of logistical problems. Port congestion, ongoing shipping tensions with China, and shifting global supply chains continue to disrupt trade flows. Also, U.S. Inland transportation has become a concern due to persistently low water levels on the Mississippi River that have restricted barge capacity, slowed tow movements and caused freight rates to rise well above typical seasonal averages, making it harder for American exporters to remain competitive against lower-cost South American suppliers. Farmers and ranchers will also be watching the outcome of tariff squabbles and retaliatory tariffs that are affecting the cost of inputs like fertilizers, crop chemicals, seed, and machinery repairs and replacement. For example, fertilizer imports are down from 33% and machinery imports are down 10% to 24%, while prices of these inputs continue to rise.
Albert Einstein wrote, Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow.
