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Farm outlook weakens as debt rises, exports fall across region

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New economic surveys show rising farm debt, falling equipment sales, and growing financial stress for producers, as wolf programs add costs for western states.

The Rural Mainstreet Index is published monthly by Creighton University, and it reports on economic conditions in 10 north central states including Colorado. The February Index found that one-third of the region’s Bank CEOs reported that their local economies are in recession, farm equipment sales have continued to decline, and regional exports of agricultural goods are down by almost 2.5%. Also, 40% of bankers responding to the survey agreed that tariffs should be reversed.

Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer points out that the percentage of producers who expected that they would experience troubling financial times in the next twelve months increased from 47% in December 2025 to 59% in January 2026, while the percentage of producers who thought U.S. agriculture would have widespread bad times during the next five years increased from 24% to 46%. Half of the responding producers believed that their farm operations were worse off than a year ago, and that they were unlikely to make farm capital investments during the next 12 months, while only 4% of them were planning to purchase new farm machinery this year.

The Farm Journal Magazine’s January Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor survey of U.S agriculture, revealed that while there is strength in the livestock sector, particularly with beef cattle, most row crop producers are suffering from low market prices due to global surpluses of corn, soybeans, and wheat They also face high input costs, rising interest rates, and lenders that are imposing additional financial requirements for operating loans. Farmers are responding to these conditions by looking at diversifying their operation’s crop and livestock enterprises, cutting input costs, and delaying capital purchases only when equipment and infrastructure upgrades are a necessity. The percentage of respondents who said they expect to have larger operating loans this year compared to a year ago rose to 21%, up from 18% at the end of 2025. As a follow-up question, producers who expect to have a larger operating loan were asked about the reasons for the increase. About a third of them reported that it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from 2025. Operating debt carryover was 23% 2025, 17% in 2024, and only 5% in 2023.

Colorado’s attempts at establishing a wolf pack in the northwest region of the state are not going well. So far, almost half of the wolves purchased have met untimely ends, and the cost of the program has mushroomed to over $3 million in the 2024-25 fiscal years, That’s about four times the $800,000 annual costs that were projected when wolf reintroduction was started at the end of 2023. Meanwhile, over the past decade, California’s wolf population has increased from a pair of wolves to seven known packs, and the state hasn’t purchased even one wolf. But this increase is causing problems. University of California Cooperative Extension livestock and rangeland specialist Tina Saitone released a study finding that a wolf pack in the Sierra Valley, in northeastern California, has thrived mostly due to the availability of cattle in their diet. But while the wolves are fat and happy with the beef smorgasbord, ranchers are not. The cost to deter wolves from having beef for dinner, and payments to ranchers for livestock losses has cost California about $2.6 million over a seven-month period in 2025.

Will Rogers wrote, Common sense is not an issue in politics, it’s an affliction, and neither is honesty. It’s a miracle.

Bob has been an agricultural educator and farm and ranch management consultant for over 40 years in southwest Colorado. He writes about agricultural issues from his farm near Cortez, and has helped to produce farm reports on KSJD for more than a dozen years.
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