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Screwworm cases, beef prices and farm stress weigh on agriculture

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One of the top stories for U.S. agricultural produces and consumers is the increasing numbers of New World screwworm cases in the U.S. which is reported to be 15 as of Monday of this week. Although this outbreak is not a direct risk for most citizens, if it is not controlled, it will affect livestock production in much of the south and southwestern U.S. In response to the new world screwworm, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization for a generic over-the-counter drug to treat New World screwworm in dogs, puppies, cats and kittens that weigh at least 2 pounds and are at least four weeks old. This is the first generic animal drug authorized for use against NWS, according to the FDA news release.

As we head into the heart of the grilling season, backyard chefs are facing some tough headwinds, with beef prices hitting new highs because of the small size of U.S. beef herds, and the reemergence of the New World screwworm that is expected to delay the onset of herd rebuilding this year. The U.S. cattle herd is at a 75-year low, with beef producers struggling to rebuild numbers after years of drought and high feed costs. The threat of an outbreak of screwworm infestations in the southwest and southern states may extend the timeline for herd recovery, which will keep prices at grocery store meat counters elevated for the near term. In May, U.S. consumers paid an average of just over $7 a pound for ground beef, which was up 13% above a year ago. But, steak prices averaged $12.80 a pound, dropping 1.7% from April, but up 16% from a year ago.

The May Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Index reported that the agricultural economy continued to contract for 13th time since January 2025, which signaled widespread economic pain for agricultural producers and rural economies. About half of the bank CEOs reported that weak grain prices were the main factor affecting producer’s incomes, which was reflected in weak agricultural equipment sales for the 33rd straight month, while approximately 48% of bank CEOs reported that financial conditions for farmers and ranchers have deteriorated from 2025 to 2026. Creighton University Economist Ernie Goss stated that "Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated input costs are no longer staying on the farm, but also hurting rural main street businesses.

The May Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor points out that there are growing concerns about weak farm profitability, rising debt costs and long-term financial stress. Agricultural economists are suggesting that farm many operations may need significant restructuring to remain viable, although they are not expecting widespread farm failures, they believe that increasing borrowing costs will separate financially strong operations from those that are already under stress, especially if borrowing costs increase because another interest rate hike that is expected before the end of the year. Many economists are warning that higher debt-servicing costs night cause a “breaking point” for young, beginning and highly leveraged operations. One of the survey’s most striking findings centers on the sustainability of current farming operations. Asked how producers will respond if today’s crop prices and input costs persist, 40% of economists said many farms will require significant restructuring to remain viable. Just 33% believe producers can largely maintain their current operational structures under existing conditions.

American architect Frank Lloyd Wright wrote, “Regard it as desirable to build a chicken house as it is to build a cathedral.”

Bob has been an agricultural educator and farm and ranch management consultant for over 40 years in southwest Colorado. He writes about agricultural issues from his farm near Cortez, and has helped to produce farm reports on KSJD for more than a dozen years.
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