A new tool from NOAA could help give earlier warnings about drought in the West. Scientists are now using something called the “Relative Oceanic Niño Index,” or RONI, to better track big climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña.
These patterns affect weather across the U.S., including here in the Southwest. La Niña, which we’ve seen a lot in recent years, often brings warm, dry conditions—and it’s one reason drought has stuck around across much of the region.
The new index adjusts for long-term ocean warming, giving a more accurate picture of what’s really happening. That matters, because it helps forecasters better predict drought and water supply.
Right now, we’re still in a La Niña pattern, but ocean temperatures are starting to warm. That could mean a shift toward El Niño later this year, which sometimes brings more moisture to the southern U.S.
Forecasters say it’s too early to be sure—but about 80 percent of models suggest El Niño could develop by fall.
