Farmers and grain traders have expressed concerns about USDA’s reporting of acreage and yields for the 2025 U.S. corn crop. Throughout the growing season, USDA raised and lowered the number of acres planted and the expected yields several times, but in January, the agency made a final revision that increased the size of the crop by over 17 billion bushels. This final USDA’s estimate represented unprecedented increases from initial estimates in June. Farmers saw already-low grain prices sink more than 5%, at a time when growers were struggling to make ends meet. The revisions prompted USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, which releases acreage estimates, to launch an internal review, according to a top National Agricultural Statistics Service official.
Observers report that confidence in USDA reporting has slipped across the agricultural economy. According to Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which was released at the Top Producer Summit in mid February, the majority of economists, producers, and retailers say their confidence in USDA reports has declined compared to past years. 68% of economists and 73% of agricultural producers and 78% of retailers say that they are less confident in USDA reports. According to Reuters’ News Service, USDA Has Launched an Internal Review. Deputy Agricultural Secretary Stephen Vaden said, “USDA expects its data to be the best, to ensure farmers have accurate information to make decisions about their operations. He also stated that “USDA economists’ job is to provide the truth, even if it is not what people want to hear. Our job is not to be popular, it is merely to be right, because that’s what we ask of them.”
Last week,The USDA reported that U.S. ag producers would have a “slightly easier" 2026, because prices for major agricultural commodities would move higher, while input prices for seed, fertilizer, chemicals and labor would be lower than in 2025...O what a difference a couple of days make. Today, the agency is predicting that, due to the start of the conflict with Iran, Ag producers can expect a whole lot of uncertainty as they begin planning for this year’s production. The Middle East Gulf Region is the location of some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, and these crop nutrients are transported on ships that transition the Strait of Hormuz, while carrying about one third of the global trade for nitrogen and phosphorus. These disruptions have already driven up the price of the nitrogen fertilizer, urea, by $60 to $80 per ton, just when some U.S. farmers are ramping up to begin field work in the southeast U.S. To make matters worse, the Chinese fertilizer industry groups are urging major producers to suspend exports of phosphate-based crop nutrients, to assure an adequate supply for Chinese farmers.
Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are also likely to impact fuel prices for U.S. farmers, because approximately 20% of the world's total petroleum liquids, which amount to about 20 to 21 million barrels per day, pass through the Strait. There are reports that 150 oil tankers, carrying petroleum products, have dropped anchor in the Gulf of Oman, waiting for more secure passage through the Strait.
Dwight D. Eisenhour wrote, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”
