Last week, the USDA reported that trade aid could be announced this week, but ag economists are split on whether these payments would provide relief, or worsen lingering risks, such as high input costs and market distortions. So far, it’s unknown when and how much aid is being considered, and whether it will be just for grain producers or for livestock producers as well. But the November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor indicates that monitor participants are split 50-50 concerning whether tariff-related financial assistance would be good or bad for producers. Many of them believe that payments might well lead to higher input costs for both crop and livestock producers , while creating market distortions that could lead to lower prices for commodities like corn and soybeans in the near future.
Farmers are already seeing some disruptions in commodity markets. For example, over the past couple of weeks, China has committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of 2025. But so far, private exporters have reported sales of approximately 1.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China in November, so there will have to be a lot of sales in December to fulfill that commitment.
At this point in time, grain farmers are facing tough markets, and cattle producers are still processing what the impact on their bottom line will be, following the shutdown of the Tyson foods Lexington Nebraska beef cattle slaughter plant last week. Darrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist, Oklahoma State University Extension, points out that although the Trump administration finally lifted the 10% tariffs on countries that are beef import sources, and the additional 40% tariffs imposed in August on Brazil, the imports of lean processing beef are expected to increase and moderate or slow the rate of increase for ground beef prices, but it won’t affect most beef prices for consumers. He believes that cattle supplies will continue to tighten in the coming year, which could accelerate more quickly if the industry begins to hold back more heifers for breeding. For 2026, higher average cattle prices are forecast, subject to continued volatility from external sources.
Some sectors of the agricultural economy are expected to have tough times as we move into the new year. Policy groups, with a diverse mix of views, are urging USDA to focus on "commonsense financial accountability," as the department prepares an expected aid package for farmers. A recent American Farm Bureau Federation analysis last week, highlighted that farmers growing just nine major crops nationally are projected to see combined losses of $34 billion for the 2025 crop year, and a lot of those financial losses stem not only from low commodity prices, tied to trade disputes, but also high input costs farmers are anticipating to produce a crop. The organization points out that cost of production for the 2025-26 crops are estimated to be $179 billion, while crop revenues are expected to be $144 billion. Using USDA data, the analysis points out that corn crops show average returns for farmers to be more than $15 billion in losses, soybeans will deliver $6.7 billion in negative returns, and wheat will earn farmers $5.8 billion in losses. The group is also calling for the USDA to ensure payments are restricted to working farmers by applying stronger standards for the "actively engaged" rule. The groups said that the current definition for actively engaged "falls short" and creates large loopholes for absentee landowners and passive investors to collect payments.
Thomas Jefferson wrote, “Cultivators of the earth are the most valuable citizens. “
