This is Bob Bragg with the Farm News & Views Report for the week of January 19th.
Last week, I reported that the snowpack in the San Miguel, Dolores and San Juan river basins were 58% of normal and the upper Colorado River basin was 60. This week, the Dolores River basin has fallen to 52% of normal, while the Upper Colorado River basin dropped to 56%. Looking at Snotel data for January 18th of 1979, I found that the Dolores river snowpack was 44%. In 1981, it was 22%, 33% in 1990, 33% in 2000, and 34% in 2018. So these numbers indicate that based on how low snowpack affected water supplies in southwest Colorado in the past, we may have some restrictions on water use this summer if there isn’t increased snowfall before early spring. But, the upper Colorado River snow pack number this year is much more dire. The last time the snow pack dropped below 56% was in 1981, when it was 44% of normal. But during the last 45 years, demand for Colorado River water has grown dramatically, because the population of southern Arizona, parts of Nevada and southern California using these water supplies has grown by over 40 million people. There are also concerns that in the near future, water levels in Lake Powell could fall to the point that the hydroelectric generators would no longer produce electricity, and that water supplies won’t be able to meet the demands of southern California communities.
Observers believe that there is a lot of strain inside the U.S. farm economy, caused by weak crop prices and high production costs for the past three years. Although farmers appreciate the $12 billion trade aid package that was announced a couple of weeks ago, farmers and economists believe that those funds will fall short of fixing the damage caused by governmental policies that have driven off long-term buyers of U.S. farm production. Observers also point to unsold tractors and other farm equipment sitting on dealer lots, and to agribusiness companies reporting shrinking earnings, while large grain supplies weigh on commodity markets. To generate a turnaround, they believe that there needs to be a resolution of Trumps trade wars along with renewed purchases by many of the U.S. trading partners that have been driven off by U.S. trade policies. There are also those who, maybe with tongue in cheek, contend that farmers would benefit from unfavorable weather in rival grain producing countries.
But the recent trade aid package may not be enough, since last week, a USDA report stated that the 2025 crop was record breaking, amounting to over 17 billion bushels, which drove down the price of both corn and soybeans, while increasing the break even prices for farmers. With some producers facing significant negative profit margins, and the possibly losing as much a 88 cents per bushel of corn, a 1,000 acre farm could face the loss of $160,000 due to the low corn prices.
So farmers are wondering why the USDA was so far off on with their initial crop reports. Grain traders and long time observers of the USDA point to what they believe is the main problem, which is that the USDA is understaffed due to the turmoil caused by forced and voluntary reduction in the number of long term USDA staff that either took buyouts offers, or were forced out in 2024.
James Madison wrote, "Liberty may be endangered by the abuse of liberty, but also by the abuse of power.”
