There is quite a bit of conjecture concerning what a super El Nino might bring to farmers, ranchers, and residents of the Four Corners Region this fall and winter. This weather pattern occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes significantly warmer than average. During El Ninos, trade winds that normally blow toward the west shift and blow eastward, changing wind, weather and rainfall patterns in much of the U.S. The usual monsoon pattern of moisture being carried aloft out of the eastern pacific then being released as the air cools over higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains have been absent this year, so farmers are going into the fall with extremely dry subsoil moisture. If a strong El Nino develops, it is likely to provide a higher than average winter snow pack that could boost soil moisture and fill reservoirs over the course of the winter, but the downside is that too much precipitation caused by a super El Nino could negativity affect crop fields and livestock production in the Four Corners Region. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the winter of 1976–77 remains the absolute driest winter in modern contiguous U.S. history, even drier than last winter, that although it had more snowfall than in 1976-77, warmer conditions throughout the winter caused the snow pack to melt throughout the winter, leading to low spring runoffs.
Colorado State University Extension service and state climatologists are advising farmers and ranchers to prepare for localized weather volatility this fall and winter due to potential negative El Nino weather conditions. They recommend that livestock producers set parameters for when they should cull or market livestock if they can’t find economical feed sources, and they suggest that farmers contact local Farm Service Agency offices for help if they suffer feed and transportation losses due to severe weather conditions.
U.S. beef producers were among the voters that carried Donald Trump back to the White House in 2024, but many of them are now questioning their support. Last week, Trump announced that he had made a deal to import 300 million metric tons of beef to be ground and sold in the U.S. to help bring down the price of beef for consumers. This move went over like a lead balloon with U.S. beef producers. While the quantity is small in comparison with the total of over five billion pounds of beef imported annually, U.S., industry groups are concerned that import duties have been lifted for these imports, while Trump stated that "We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25% below current market prices.” In a statement of opposition on Aug. 21, the National Cattlemen's Beef Association stated that,"Today's announcement and other market interventions throw cold water on the prospect of herd expansion and sacrifices long-term stability for short-term messaging." They explained that this is a critical time of year for cattle producers, when they are making herd-sizing decisions.
To help farmers and ranchers who want to diversify their operations by adding Agritourism. Montezuma County Extension is offering the risk management workshop, “Practical Protection for Agriculture and Agritourism - From the Field to the Farm-gate” on September 2nd from 6 to 8 pm at First National Bank, Cortez. There is a $5.00 per person registration fee, but dinner is included with an RSVP. Contact Lanea Donahoo, Program Assistant, at 970-565-3123 for registration or additional information.
Mark Twain wrote, “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get”
