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La Niña Outlook, Drought Persistence, and McPhee Reservoir Levels

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In their latest projection, the National Weather Service expects brief La Nina conditions to develop this fall and early winter, before reverting to more neutral conditions next year. La Nina usually brings drier conditions to the 4 Corners.

Drought conditions are expected to persist for the next 3 months across the region, which seems to line up with the La Nina prediction as well.

A new study from the University of New Mexico finds that forests that are maintained by regular fires are less susceptible to the stress of little water during drought conditions. That’s at least partly because there are less trees around to drink up the little bit of water they may receive. The team was able to compare the Gila Wilderness, which experiences frequent burns, with other nearby forests that are not fire-maintained.

Your eyes are not deceiving you as you drive, walk or jog by McPhee Reservoir. It’s 16 and a half feet lower than it was at this time last year, and we’re seeing more of the bottom of the reservoir as well as the Dolores River leading into it. It’s currently at around 52% of full pool.

Lacy McKay is the News Director and Morning Edition Host at KSJD Community Radio in Cortez, Colorado. They bring years of experience in audio production and community-centered reporting, with a focus on rural issues, public lands, tribal affairs, and civic engagement in the Four Corners region. McKay has produced and edited news features, interviews, and podcasts for broadcast and digital platforms, and works closely with regional partners through Rocky Mountain Community Radio to amplify local voices and stories that might otherwise go unheard.
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