In April 2025, the Taylor-Oswald Ranch had nearly 20 inches of moisture for the month; this year, that number had dropped to 12.75 inches of moisture for the same time period.
"So the little creek that runs down through our lower ranch has just made our fence. Which (during) normal years, it runs way past the lower house (Sand Gulch) and down through the draw there," Steve Oswald says, pointing toward the north.
Oswald has been the ranch owner, operator, and regenerative farmer for the last 42 years on this property. He also spent several years ranching in British Columbia, Canada. He's seen some bad drought years, but nothing, so far, as bad as 2002.
In 2002, Colorado suffered one of its driest years, with parts of the state receiving little to no snow in either March or April, and then virtually no moisture during the monsoon season that summer. The Taylor-Oswald Ranch had a massive sell-off in a down market, which took a long time to recover from.
"Prices had dropped because there were thousands of trucks going out here. So as a result of that experience in 2002, I decided to draw up what's called a drought plan. And that's something you do when the rain's coming down, and life is good," he said.
Oswald tracks and records moisture every day. He uses a rain gauge on his property and reports data to CoCoRaHS, a volunteer precipitation monitoring network with sites across the country. He enters measurements each morning at 7 a.m., allowing him to compare current conditions with past years. He also monitors nearby stations, including one along Verdemont Road, near Westcliffe, where readings tend to be slightly higher due to its elevation.
Oswald said he focuses on three key dates in his planning: April 15, July 15, and Sept. 15. By mid-April, he expects to know how much snowpack the area received. The July benchmark helps determine whether monsoon rains have arrived, while the September date indicates whether enough moisture has fallen to support forage growth heading into winter.
The area did receive some snow in late April, but according to Oswald, it was not enough. "While it did not make much of a dent in things, it's amazing how things look," he acknowledged. "Grass is showing signs of life. (It's) too dry to see any excess of water, but the creek down in Sand Gulch perked up a bit."
Even with more moisture in the forecast, Oswald says it's still important to have a drought plan. With less water and slow grass growth, producers face the risk of running short on feed, and for Oswald, that means reducing his herd.
"Yeah, it's a concern that we'll run out. But I'm hoping to cut back enough of my numbers (of cattle) so that we'll have enough feed," Oswald explained. "I've got enough standing forage to last until the first part of June. So, it's gotta rain."
He said they began reducing herd size in January, selling roughly 15% of their animals, with plans to sell another 15% to 20% before summer. Oswald said the impact on his business would be manageable due to strong market conditions.
"This year it's not bad because the cow market is very high right now," he indicated. "So that part's good. In terms of supply, we're a direct marketer — that means fewer animals to market to our customers. Although we'll have enough this year, next year might be a problem."
Oswald noted it takes about 28 months to raise an animal for processing, meaning the effects of the herd reduction could be felt more significantly in the year ahead.
About 15 miles from Oswald's ranch, there are 150-year-old apple trees at the Amy Homestead in Howard. Property owner Cinde McPhail counts 73 heritage apple trees in her orchard, along with 140 younger grafted ones. She says that due to the lack of moisture this winter, they're preparing for summer and are ready to water by hand.
Like other producers in the area, McPhail hopes for rain.
"It's got to rain an inch to do them (the trees) any good," she said.
McPhail added that she's not too concerned about this year's drought since the 2002 drought was the worst she'd experienced. So far, this year isn't looking as bad as back then.
" It was awful. I remember walking through this orchard and literally, there was not a blade of green grass, and it was just crunchy," she described.
" It was so scary. I thought, 'These trees can't live through that,' but they're amazingly hearty. I think a lot of people don't realize you can kill an apple tree faster by drowning it than by not giving it water."
McPhail said she expects the trees will likely survive the current drought conditions, even with the early bloom time that happened at the beginning of April. However, that doesn't mean they'll produce fruit.
"We know they probably won't die. Now, that also means we probably won't have apples," she said.
Copyright 2026 KLZR. This story was shared via Rocky Mountain Community Radio, a network of public media stations in Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico, including KSJD.
